Performance Evaluation of Medium-Term Load Forecasting Approaches: A Case Study of Ogun State, Nigeria
Abstract
The place of electrical energy in enhancement of this computer age cannot be over-emphasised. Its forecast plays a significant functions in energy industry, helps the government and private sectors in making the precise decision regarding energy management practices. This paper presents performance evaluation of medium-term load forecasting techniques: a case study of Ogun State, Nigeria. Two different approaches were used using the previous load consumption in 2017 for the forecast. Least square approach compared with regression exponential approaches gave the least value of Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which are 1.8212% and 0.004472 respectively. The anticipated percentage load growth for the months of July-December, 2018 forecasted with least square approach were 34.06%, 33.54%, 36.10%, 31.10%, 32.23% and 30.15% respectively, acute gas supply caused by pipeline vandalisation and theft of distribution/sub-station materials could be held responsible for low load growth in the month of December. The results of this analysis will assist the Regional Headquarters, Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC), Abeokuta, Ogun State in making effective planning, operation and management of energy across the state.
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